Stock value and performance reflect the ability of a firm to generate cash flow. Therefore, it is helpful for investors to predict cash flow in order to forecast stock returns. This study aims to propose a model for evaluating firm performance by analyzing the correlation between cash flow and stock returns in both distressed and non-distressed financial situations. The population consisted of firms listed in Tehran Stock Exchange, out of which 197 were selected within the 2012–2021 timeframe as samples for statistical analysis using multiple linear regression. Findings reveal that the independent variable, cash flow, does not have a direct effect on the dependent variable, stock returns, in distressed firms, but there is a significant effect in non-distressed ones. In distressed firms, independent variables (cash flows: operational, free, equity, and capital) and control variables (firm size, financial leverage, and Tobin’s Q) do not have a significant relationship with stock returns. However, they have an inverse significant relationship with free cash flow in non-distressed firms, and no relationship with other independent variables. Thus, it is possible to evaluate firms in non-distressed financial situations through an analysis of the relationship between stock returns and free cash flow. To identify distressed and non-distressed firms, Kordestani and Tatli’s model was used; several models are derived from this model that are widely used in Iran and include the best explanatory variables in discriminant and logit analyses with an overall accuracy of 93%.